Stock Buybacks
Stock buybacks have been a major feature of this secular bull market, especially last decade when they contributed to over 20% of S&P 500 earnings growth.
Crypto and Gold
October marked the end of the fourth year of the Bitcoin cycle and a likely intermediate top based on past cycles, which would also be the beginning of a down cycle for the rest of crypto.
Don’t Fight The Fed No Longer Valid?
One of the biggest changes in correlations in the stock market occurred in January 2001 and it went unnoticed.
Oil and Natural Gas
Back in 2022 most investors believed we were in a new oil and natural gas bull market with many years to run.
Risk-Adjusted Returns
With the extraordinary equity returns last decade especially in tech stocks, investors no longer care about risk-adjusted returns (it was a major focus for investors in earlier decades).
Economic Outlook
The economy has slowed in 2025 with real GDP growing only 1.5% in the first half vs. almost 3% in 2023 and 2024.
Market Breadth
The recent outperformance of small caps and some value cyclical sectors such as consumer discretionary will likely not last for more than six to nine months.
Timing of AI Bubble Bursting
The timing and circumstances are almost too perfect for the AI bubble to burst within the next couple of years to end the current secular bull market.
Stock Market Concentration
Very high stock market capitalization concentration is also a leading indicator of the end of secular bull markets.
Boxes Checked For Near End of Secular Bull Market
Just about all of the boxes have been checked that an investor would look for to determine that the end of a secular bull market is near.