All valuation measures (price/cash flows, price/book, etc.) on the S&P 500 are at all-time highs except for P/E’s but we are at 2.5 standard deviations on P/E.

All valuation measures (price/cash flows, price/book, etc.) on the S&P 500 are at all-time highs except for P/E’s but we are at 2.5 standard deviations on P/E.

There are many reasons that the P/E of the stock market should be lower not higher based on secular changes.

Geopolitics and tariffs are also a new major headline that should cause lower valuations. The increase in tensions internationally, especially between the US and both Russia and

Productivity growth is supposed to be the savior for high valuations and lack of employment growth, but so far that has not been the case.

The housing bubble is significantly understated. From 12/19 to 7/22 the average housing prices increased 43% or 29% after inflation using a housing price model that combines

One of the most underrated and significant events was the hypergrowth and “work from home” stocks as well as crypto bubble in 2020-21.

Another big myth is that today is different than the late 1990’s because most of the late 1990’s tech companies were not profitable, unlike today.

This secular bull market which began on 3/9/09, is now 16 years and 8 months long. The last two secular bull markets lasted 17 years and 7

According to the consensus one of the biggest risks to the stock and bond markets is the 100% US debt to GDP.

Stock buybacks have been a major feature of this secular bull market, especially last decade when they contributed to over 20% of S&P 500 earnings growth.

October marked the end of the fourth year of the Bitcoin cycle and a likely intermediate top based on past cycles, which would also be the beginning

One of the biggest changes in correlations in the stock market occurred in January 2001 and it went unnoticed.

Back in 2022 most investors believed we were in a new oil and natural gas bull market with many years to run.

With the extraordinary equity returns last decade especially in tech stocks, investors no longer care about risk-adjusted returns (it was a major focus for investors in earlier

The economy has slowed in 2025 with real GDP growing only 1.5% in the first half vs. almost 3% in 2023 and 2024.

The recent outperformance of small caps and some value cyclical sectors such as consumer discretionary will likely not last for more than six to nine months.

The timing and circumstances are almost too perfect for the AI bubble to burst within the next couple of years to end the current secular bull market.

Very high stock market capitalization concentration is also a leading indicator of the end of secular bull markets.

Just about all of the boxes have been checked that an investor would look for to determine that the end of a secular bull market is near.

All valuation measures (price/cash flows, price/book, etc.) on the S&P 500 are at all-time highs except for P/E’s but we are at 2.5 standard deviations on P/E.