Investment Strategy
All valuation measures (price/cash flows, price/book, etc.) on the S&P 500 are at all-time highs except for P/E’s but we are at 2.5 standard deviations on P/E. Even median valuations are near all-time highs at a P/E of 19.
Speculation Rampant
12/13/20S&P 500: 3663Nasdaq: 1237710 year Treasury: 0.9% David R. Snyder, CFA Over the last month or two speculators have made 30 to 50% daily gains in “story stocks” a normal occurrence. I read and hear about all of these investors who believe they can do better on their own rather than having their money managed […]
Once in a Generation
12/27/20S&P 500: 3703Nasdaq: 1280510 Year Treasury: 0.9% David R. Snyder, CFA 1968….1983….2000….2020. Those are the years that technology and/or internet bubbles peaked and it wasn’t pretty thereafter. They happen just about once in a generation or every 15 to 20 years. I remember when the last tech bubble burst in 2000 and the Nasdaq declined […]
Upside Down in 2021
1/3/21S&P 500: 3756Nasdaq: 128810 Year Treasury: 0.9% David R. Snyder, CFA 2021 will be a reversal of 2020. With few exceptions every investment strategy that performed well in 2020 will not do well in 2021, and vice versa. Just turn 2020 investment returns by strategy, sector, and style upside down and you will have an […]
Buying the Dip
2/10/21S&P 500: 3910Nasdaq: 1397210 Year Treasury: 0.11% David R. Snyder, CFA Speculation continues to run rampant. Any stock market short term scare is met with frenzied buying. And so it goes. This afternoon the short term sell was closed out with a 2.3% loss at S&P 500 3911. Initially after my short term sale recommendation […]
The Last Phase
2/21/21S&P 500: 3907Nasdaq: 13,87410 Year Treasury: 1.3% David R. Snyder, CFA We are in the last phase of the first year of a bull market. In the past after recession induced bear markets, the first stage of a new bull market has consistently lasted for one year give or take a month on either side. […]
Go Go Stocks Go South
3/7/21S&P 500: 3848Nasdaq: 1264110 Year Treasury: 1.5% David R. Snyder, CFA In the late 1960’s there was a technology bubble and the fastest growing companies were known as “Go Go” stocks. From November of 1962 through November 1968 technology stocks (categorized under business equipment sector as there was no official tech sector) compounded over 24% […]
Non Believers
3/21/21S&P 500: 3913Nasdaq: 1321510 year Treasury: 1.7% David R. Snyder, CFA Despite the dramatic outperformance of value over growth over the last six months, many investors and strategists still are not convinced this trade has legs. According to a Barron’s article this weekend only 52% of 220 fund managers surveyed by Bank of America (BAC […]
The Craziness Is Ending
4/11/21S&P 500: 4129Nasdaq: 1390010 Year Treasury: 1.6% David R. Snyder, CFA For the last few months I have been ranting about all of the excesses in the financial markets and forecasting the bubbles would burst soon. Many have already burst such as the stocks of hypergrowth companies and speculative SPAC’s. There are more to […]
Why This Rally Is Really Different
Most investors are not impressed with the 29% gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) from the March 9 low. The consensus is that the sharp rebound in the stock market is just another bear market rally.