12/14/25
S&P 500: 6827
Nasdaq: 23,195
10 Year Treasury: 4.1%
David R. Snyder, CFA
This secular bull market which began on 3/9/09, is now 16 years and 8 months long. The last two secular bull markets lasted 17 years and 7 months (8/82-3/2000) and 16 years and 7 months (6/49-1/66). There has been a consistent pattern of alternating secular bull and bear markets since 1815 with most lasting between 15 and 20 years. The secular bull markets usually have average real compound annual returns of 12 to 16% vs. the long term average of 6.5%. The current secular bull market which began in March of 2009 has so far produced real compound annual returns of 13.7% vs.15.1% from 1949-66 and 15.5% from 1982-2000. Secular bear markets have also mostly lasted between 15 and 20 years and have produced flat or slightly negative real compound annual returns. The lowest real annual compound returns were negative 7.6%, from March of 2000 to March of 2009. Although these were the worst bear market real returns, the bear market only lasted 9 years. My thesis has always been that the current secular bull market would not be quite as strong as in the past as we only experienced a 9 year bear market (despite the more negative annual returns) but it has been almost as strong. Interesting that the short eight year secular bull market from 1921-29 produced almost double the real annual compound returns of other secular bull markets at 28%, almost making up for the shorter time period.
There also have been very consistent major 25 to 33 year cycles where the stock market makes a major decades low in valuation and negative returns. These occurred in 1861, 1896, 1921, 1949, 1982 and 2009. That would mean the next major secular low is scheduled to occur between 2034 and 2041. That is relevant today because it takes many years for the low to develop with the top usually occurring at least a decade before the secular bottom. Expect the S&P 500 P/E to fall below 10 sometime during that time period wiping out at least a whole decade of earnings.
All of these secular market patterns point to a likely end to the current secular bull market within the next two to three years and more likely sooner, with next year being my best estimate.
Full Disclosure: I own several of the securities mentioned positively. None have been purchased within the last month. The opinions merely represent the opinion of the author as CIO of Journey 1 Advisors, LLC and intended to inform the readers about our investment philosophy and strategy. The contents of this report are based on sources believed to be reliable. It is not intended for circulation. It is not intended to offer investment advice, or to recommend the purchase or sale of any securities or investment product. Investment advice is only given after a client has signed an investment advisory agreement with Journey 1 Advisors, LLC and will be subject to the terms and conditions therein. Your decision to buy or sell a security should be based upon your personal investment objectives and should be made only after evaluating the stock’s expected performance and risk.